There are countless explanations for the volatility of the 'Balkan Powderkeg.' Historians variously blame disputes over resources, ancient hatreds or meddling by Great Powers intent on keeping the region unstable. But geography is also a powerful clue: Lying south of the Danube river, the Balkans region, like Afghanistan, is composed of scarce fertile valleys, separated by high mountains that fragment the area's ethnic groups, even though many have similar languages and origins.
There are countries in the world where political citizenship doesn't mean anything—it's ethnic identity that matters. 

     Basques bomb Spanish police stations, agitating for their own state. Whites and blacks squabble over resources in post-apartheid South Africa, and even in wealthy Canada, a French-speaking separatist movement is gaining strength in Quebec.  

     But it's the Balkans that we think of when a nation splinters apart. It's the Balkans—mainly Bosnia, Croatia and Serbia—that took center stage for much of this decade, and they may do so in the next.  

     "Balkanization"—the term was coinedback in 1912, amid similar chaos—terrifies the industrialized world. Ethnic civil wars can mean skyrocketing inflation, currency crises or increased tensions as neighbors watch nervously, or take sides. A collapse of Bosnia's shaky peace accord could send streams of refugees into Europe, prompt Iran to protect local Muslims or pit NATO allies against each other in a regional war.  

     The 1995 peace agreement reached in Dayton, Ohio was one of the most elaborate and impressive diplomatic efforts ever. But ethnic divisions in Bosnia remain strong. The Muslim government won't let displaced Serbs return home, and Croat and Serb officials return the favor, leaving millions with nothing from the peace. Indicted war criminals Ratko Mladic and Radovan Karadzic still walk free, with cheering supporters, and few of the multi-ethnic town councils mandated by Dayton have actually met.  

     It may well be impossible to fix the Balkan problem, and others like it around the world. But the first step is to understand how the problem started, and why people disillusioned by centuries of ever-changing borders see only one solution: an ethnic homeland.   

     "We don't have a deep appreciation of peoples who base their national identities on ethnicity," says Dr. Bob Donnorummo, a Balkan expert at the Universitiy of Pittsburgh. "We have to be aware that these people don't want to live together."  

— Terence Nelan